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The Emperor's New Hydrogen
Economy
Updates: Chapter 7 – Hydrogen from Fossil
Fuel Sources
Last updated 2008.02.18
An update on natural gas availability for North America.
The
Oil Sands Technology Roadmap offers some interesting tidbits.
"Oil sands projects are heavily dependent on natural gas use for energy and power (co-generation) and hydrogen production for upgrading. In-situ energy demand with today’s technology requires 1000 cubic feet of natural gas per barrel recovered. ...
"In this scenario, natural gas usage would rise from 10% of combined WCSB, Coal Bed Methane (CBM) and Mackenzie supply by 2012, to an unthinkable 60% or more by 2030. Such a demand level, combined with competition from other markets in the face of dwindling reserves, will only drive price increases. LNG imports into North America may begin to set price levels. The 'business as usual' case is clearly unsustainable and uneconomical." (p.14)
The brown section represents only the demand by the tar sands extraction, not total demand in North America.
For a more complete picture of the story, see J. David Hughes on the subject, e.g., this ASPO presentation.
Another perspective on falling production at the Energy Bulletin.
In short, North American natural gas production peaked about 2002, and is falling. Demand continues to rise in a number of sectors (oil sands, residential, industrial, commercial and institutional space heating, electrical generation, oil refinery upgrading, hydrogen production), and prices will continue to rise. If you heat with natural gas, you may want to start looking at other options, such as more insulation, solar, ground-source heat pumps, or pellet stoves.
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