The Insidious, Persistent anti-EV Messaging Campaign
For many years now, I have noticed that each time EVs are on the cusp of making a serious
dent in the on-road vehicle market, an insidious, whispering counter-campaign ramps up. I'm
not talking 'conspiracy theories' here, just observed behaviour. There is no doubt that there
are vested interests that would not welcome a vehicle that uses much less or no oil products,
requires less maintenance, improves the urban soundscape and threatens established markets.
However, while EVs are not perfect, they are paragons of virtue compared to the impacts
of their fossil-fueled brethren. That makes it hard to attack them based on facts. As a
result, those with a counter-agenda use other means to attack and undermine electric vehicles.
A number of approaches are used. Due to the appreciable resources available to large, very
profitable industries, their tactics seem minor and almost trivial when examined on an
incident by incident basis. They rely on their relentless small advances on every conceivable
front to have the desired effect on a cumulative basis. Thus, those of us who want cleaner
air, less polluted water, quieter cities, less oil-funded terrorism (rest of EV advantages
taken as read), actually have to be on the lookout for these incremental bits of anti-EV
message creep and address them. It's a daunting task because the EV industry doesn't really
even exist yet, and it still tends to be populated by those naive enough to think that a
better solution can emerge victorious over the entrenched and powerful solely on its merits.
I raise the matter here today because a couple of things have been passed my way since
my rebuttal of the Gwyn Morgan column in the Globe and Mail,
in itself a classic example of the problem.
In recent weeks, a few folks have posited that
WikiPedia is being manipulated to erase and
undermine the pro-EV message of recent years. WikiPedia is in fact easy to manipulate, if you
have the time and ability to be persistent. In effect, he who makes the last change wins.
Because WikiPedia is seen as a reliable source of information, and is increasingly relied upon
by the technical crowd as a key information source, the revisionism takes its toll on the
accuracy of the record over time.
In another example, this article was passed to me long after its best-before date. The URL reads
"http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/08/31/battery_cars_destroy_the_world/". That's a
pretty clear indictment of EV technology. The actual headline for the article reads
"Diesels greener than battery cars, says Swiss gov report". Pretty damning stuff - except that
the actual paper being report upon says nothing of the kind. Pretty cool twisting of the message,
don't you think? It works because the phrase in the URL is almost subliminal, but it sets the
tone for reader. Then the headline suggests that an authoritative source (the Swiss government)
has done a study that determines diesel engines produce less environmental damage than using
an electric car. Which would be fine, if that is what the paper actually said.
The study in question,
Contribution of Li-Ion Batteries to the Environmental Impact of Electric Vehicles
is actually a study of a specific battery technology. On that subject, the report says:
"The Li-ion battery plays a minor role regarding the environmental burdens of E-mobility
irrespective of the impact assessment method used. Transport services with an ICEV
(internal combustion engine vehicle) cause higher environmental burdens than with a BEV
(battery electric vehicle)." Doesn't quite align with "battery_cars_destroy_the_world",
does it? So, there must be a smoking gun elsewhere in the paper to justify the URL phrase
and headline. Let's look at the concluding paragraph from the paper.
"All the facts taken together, the results of the LCA (life cycle analysis), the various
sensitivity analyses, the modeling applied for EOL (end of life), the assumption for the
used electricity mix, etc., suggest that E-mobility is environmentally beneficial compared
to conventional mobility. The Li-ion battery plays a minor role in the assessment of the
environmental burden of E-Mobility. Thus, the Li-ion battery in an [sic] BEV does not lead
to an overcompensation of the potential benefits of the higher efficiency of BEV compared
to an ICEV."
Hmmm, the paper concludes that the BEV is environmentally beneficial compared
to the ICEV. Again, how do we get from there to "Diesels greener than battery cars", or
"battery_cars_destroy_the_world"? Not based on the content of the paper, which means that
someone has completely obfuscated the truth of the paper, hoping that most readers will
not read beyond the disinformation article to find out the facts presented in the paper.
In summary, whenever you encounter an article suggesting EVs are environmentally
inferior to fossil-fuellers, be on your guard for disinformation. Dig in, and root out
these bits of insidious message manipulation. This example was particularly crass - most
message manipulators are more subtle. In particular, watch out for assumptions about
energy sources (e.g., suppose the electricity is generated 100% from coal using 1930s
generating technology, vs a rational measure of the electricity generation mix).
Remedial media: not fun, but it needs to be done.
December 14, 2010
This article appeared in the Globe and Mail on 2010.12.13, under the by-line of Gwyn Morgan.
The text in italics is from the original article, and my responses are shown in regular font.
I submitted this to the Globe and Mail Letters Editor (via e-mail) today.
Paving the way ahead for electric cars
The long, hard road ahead for electric cars
Only one week after the much-hyped rollout of electric cars at the Los Angeles Auto Show,
Canadian news media carried reports about how Ontario electricity costs are expected to double
over the next 20 years.
That forecast must have Ontarians questioning whether buying an electric car is a good
idea. But there are other questions all Canadians would be wise to ask about electric cars,
and the electricity needed to power them. Let’s put those questions into perspective.
Does that perspective include the prospect of oil selling at $200 a barrel by 2020? Or
gasoline priced at $2.50 a litre? These are credible forecasts in the oil industry today;
more than double today’s prices within 10 years or less. That makes electricity at twice
the price in 20 years look like a bargain.
Will there be enough electricity?
Even the staggering electricity rate increases announced by Ontario would not
generate nearly enough power to handle a large auto-recharge load, nor could already
stretched power grids handle it, either. Hydro-Québec recently said its distribution
grid could accommodate a meagre 1,000 car plug-ins. In other provinces also, costly
retooling of power generation, mainline transmission and local distribution grids would
be required.
Actually, Hydro-Québec said they could easily accommodate 1,000,000 electric car
charging outlets. With time, they can ramp that up if demand warrants. Much of the
‘costly retooling’ will be done anyway over a period of years as regular maintenance
and implementation of the ‘Smart Grid’.
I have done the analysis for Ontario a couple of times in the past few years.
Assuming that most electric car charging is done at night (to qualify for lower off-peak
prices), the difference between daily peak and lowest demand in Ontario (weekdays) is
sufficient to charge approximately 7,000,000 vehicles, with no increase in generating
capacity needed. That is more vehicles than are currently licensed in Ontario.
For a Canadian analysis, see the Electric Mobility Canada backgrounder at
http://www.emc-mec.ca/files/EMC-2009oct07_ElectricVehiclesAndTheGrid.pdf.
Won’t wind and solar generate a lot of the power needed for electric cars?
Wind and solar generate less than 1 per cent of Canada’s power supply, and most
provinces have subsidies aimed at increasing that portion. The most spectacular example
of the sky-rocketing 16 times as much for solar power, and three times more for wind,
as the current average electricity rate. Ontario’s 20-year power plan calls for
$23-billion in subsidies to the wind and solar industry, supposedly allowing coal-fired
power to be phased out. But its own numbers show that with wind and solar capacity
available less than 30 per cent of the time, these costly projects still won’t bring
about the end of coal. Meanwhile, electricity consumers will be hit with price increases
of 46 per cent over the next five years, making Ontario industry uncompetitive with
almost all provinces and American states. No wonder Premier Dalton McGuinty’s green
dream is turning into a nightmare as an election looms.
Renewables (other than hydro) are the new kids on the generation block, but they are
the fastest growing segments. Governments in Canada subsidize the oil industry as well,
and they’re a mature industry making historic profits. Wind and solar are intermittent
energy sources, but the fuel is free, zero emissions and does not require tailings ponds
or billions of dollars to be spent on clean-up. With its large hydro resources, the
Ontario grid is not at any risk by accommodating large amounts of wind and solar
electric generation. In fact, solar generation is highly sought after, as it produces
maximum supply at the time of maximum demand – hot summer afternoons. If Ontario has
to buy electricity on the spot market at such times, the price is very high.
In the meantime, we will continue to import oil to keep the internal combustion fleet
running in the eastern half of the country, while exporting western oil to the U.S.
At least we produce electricity at home, creating jobs here instead of Venezuela and
the Middle East.
Are electric cars really “green”?
That depends on how the electricity is generated. Water generates most of the
electricity in Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Manitoba and B.C., while Alberta
and Saskatchewan generate nearly all power from coal and natural gas. Overall, about
75 per cent of Canada’s electricity comes from water and nuclear power, and 25 per
cent from fossil fuels. When measured by fossil-fuel emissions, use of electric cars
in Canada can generally be considered green. The situation is the reverse in the
United States, where fossil fuels, mainly coal, generate 75 per cent of electricity.
So operating an electric car there would account for more fossil-fuel emissions than
a conventional gasoline-powered vehicle (thus making GM’s Chevy Volt a tougher sell
to eco-conscious consumers, the target market for electric vehicles).
Studies (1,2,3) show that even in areas where electricity comes 100% from coal,
electric cars are still better for air quality and greenhouse gas emissions than
gasoline powered cars. It is easier to clean up 1 smokestack, than 100,000 tailpipes.
Individuals have the option of making sure their personal electricity consumption is
off-set by green generation.
Perhaps the natural gas used to extract crude from the tar sands in Western Canada
should be used instead to help create greener electricity by using it to replace coal
with natural gas as a fuel in the thermal generating plants throughout North America.
Is it more lucrative for the natural gas industry to burn this relatively clean
(compared to coal) fuel to produce crude oil?
Are electric cars practical in Canada?
Besides of their high price tag, limited range and the inconvenience of long
charging cycles, there’s another factor that even the greenest Canadians need to
consider before buying an electric car: our northern climate. Anyone who has had
trouble starting a car in cold weather knows that battery performance plummets
with temperature. In our dark, cold winters, we also need battery power to heat
the car and run headlights. The combined result is a much shorter driving range
than they’ll be touting in the electric-car showroom.
Practicality, like beauty, rests in the eye of the beholder. I have been driving
electric vehicles since 1979 in Ottawa, where we know something about cold. We
have a solution for keeping the batteries warm – insulation. Driving range is
reduced somewhat in winter (about 10%), mostly because of additional drag due to
snow and slush. Ironically, the way we keep the gassers ready to start in cold
weather conditions is to plug them in (so the block heaters can keep the oil in
the engine sump from turning to frozen sludge).
As for the high price of electric vehicles, that will come down with volume
production, like it has for consumer electronics and advanced batteries that
power portable devices. The limited range is a non-issue for typical urban driving.
For occasional longer trips, people can rent a gasser or use a plug-in hybrid.
Fast charging facilities exist, although they have not yet been installed in quantity.
Personally, I find that recharging my car overnight (while I am also recharging) works
very well, and eliminates the need for regular additional stops for gasoline fill-ups.
How long does it take to recharge my electric car? About 10 seconds: 5 seconds to
plug it in when I get home; and another 5 seconds to unplug when I’m ready to leave.
The green-car race is imploding as beleaguered citizens, struggling to deal with
tough economies, see their electricity rates soar and expensive wind and solar power
missing in action when most needed. Other jurisdictions are rapidly changing direction,
but Ontario keeps whistling merrily in the wind, bound for uncompetitive green oblivion.
The current state of economic mismanagement has nothing to do with the desirability
of cleaner cars. Other jurisdictions with plans to green their grids are doing just
fine economically, e.g., Germany, Denmark. If Ontario can stop importing coal, that
would likely be beneficial for the provincial balance of trade, not to mention health
care costs associated with asthma and respiratory diseases.
Just last week, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu said the development of an
electric-car battery to be competitive with the internal combustion engine might
be five years away. “The storage capacity of [electric] car batteries needs to be
increased by six or seven times, their lives need to be extended by 15 years, and
their cost needs to be reduced by a factor of three,” he said at the UN climate
conference in Cancun, Mexico. I think I’ll sell my GM stock while I’m ahead.
Actually, the current state of electric vehicle technology looks pretty
competitive now. Range of 400 km or more per charge, fast recharging stations,
maximum speeds in excess of any legal speed limit on the continent, less expensive
to fuel, less expensive to maintain, can be charged at home while I’m sleeping,
and no tailpipe. Even so, battery technology will continue to improve, as Secretary
Chu says. All that remains is to find the courage to proceed.
Darryl McMahon
Author, The Emperor’s New Hydrogen Economy
Member, the Electric Vehicle Council of Ottawa
Owner, electric car, electric tractor, electric boat, electric bicycle
1) http://www.electroauto.com/info/pollmyth.shtml
2) http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/Executive%20Summary%20final%20with%20cover%20secured.pdf
3) http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es702178s
June 1, 2010
Ontario's No EV Policy Now 3 Months Old 2010.05.07
Early in February 2010, the Ontario Ministry of Transportation
stopped accepting registrations for electric vehicles in the province.
There was no announcement, and no consultation with EV advocates
or owners. The first few EV owners turned away at licence bureaus
did not even get a reason for the refusal.
When pressed for information, MTO officials offered up some
weak reasons. First, apparently large numbers of Ontarians were
fraudulently claiming their vehicles were powered by electricity,
so as to avoid Drive Clean tests. However, MTO's own data show less
than 100 cars and light trucks are registered as electric in Ontario.
(I can personally identify about 40 of those that are legitmately
electric powered.) MTO has the authority to inspect anything
they deem suspicious, and there are stiff penalties for false
statements on registration forms, including fines and jail time.
Prior to the secret licensing ban, electric vehicles in Ontario
were subject to exactly the same safety inspection, licensing and
insurance rules as any other vehicle on the road. The question MTO
still has not adequately answered is why this small population of
clean-air, environmentally-friendly vehicles has been singled out
for this degree of persecution, when street-racers actually have
to commit an offence to suffer any penalty, and gross polluters
can continue to operate on 'conditional' passes. For a government
that claims to support green vehicles, this government has a very
strange way of showing it.
Reasoned discussions with MTO officials since the secret ban
was discovered have dragged out over many weeks, with little sign
of progress toward getting the vehicles re-legalized in Ontario.
The only incentive the Ontario government offers for buying or
making an electric vehicle, small as it is,
ends on June 30, 2010 with the introduction of the HST.
For
more information on the Ontario electric vehicle licensing ban,
visit the 10n10.ca Web site.
April 23, 2010
No word on what support will be provided to owners of the newly orphaned
car line.
That leaves only Nemo as a supplier under the current Quebec pilot project,
and they only build a truck; no cars in their line. That's going to make the
value of the pilot project pretty questionable unless another passenger LSV
is allowed to acquired under the project.
Let's hope the R4 retains much of the spirit of the concept vehicle,
and sports a price that means it actually takes to the road, and not just
the Audi museum.
Unlike the major automakers, it's good to see that other vehicle makers
see the right way to build a hybrid: an all-electric drive train with a
small heat engine used only to extend range on those trips where the battery
capacity is not sufficient.
If you want an electric car, make your own
It all has a dreary familiarity to it. The mainstream media pump up the arrival of the
electric car prototypes (1970s, 1990s and again now), then the automakers and our
governments (cheered on by Big Oil) take them away from us like Lucy with Charlie
Brown's football. (If you remember that from the Peanuts comic strip, maybe you
also remember the previous alleged comings of the electric car.)
Ontario finally legalized the Low Speed electric Vehicle (LSV) this past summer,
just a decade after U.S. states did so. But in an artful display of doublethink,
they then added regulations that ensured no production model could qualify. Then,
when they announced incentives for electric cars in July to take effect in the
second half of 2010, the LSV was specifically excluded from the incentives, although
it would have qualified based on the skimpy details provided at the time of the
announcement. Stay tuned while they find a reason to exclude conversions and the
few EVs already on the road in Ontario from the incentives as well. It's not as
though we really want to foster a new, green industry in the province that would
create jobs (vehicle manufacturing, sales, batteries, electric motors, other components).
Now with confusion as to what incentives will really apply in the U.S., and when,
it appears more of the erstwhile EV makers will likely disappear.
Last week,
Chrysler walked away from its earlier commitment to deliver 3 different
models of electric and electric-hybrid cars.
Today, there is a rumour that forward-looking EV darling
Aptera is in trouble.
While GM continues to advertise their Volt plug-in hybrid prototype, the actual
delivery date keeps sliding off into the future. Remember, when originally announced
in 2006, it was supposed to be in showrooms by now. Most recent guess - late 2010 -
in limited numbers. GM will yet find a reason not to deliver. The last time they
were forced to deliver (1996), they started a blood war with the State of California
that concluded with a concerted search and destroy mission to eradicate the EV-1 from
existence. They got that concession in return for a promise to deliver hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles to showrooms in quantity in 2008. Per usual with GM and environmental
commitments, never happened. GM may have to change its colours due to government
and UAW ownership, but green isn't one they will adopt willingly.
If you want a sense of how this is going to end, find a copy of The Lost Cord by
Barbara Taylor.
Enthusiasts and small conversion companies have built literally thousands of on-road
electric cars, trucks and motorcycles in North America in recent years. It's a viable
option, and more likely to achieve results than continuing to wait automakers that have
fought the technology tooth and nail for decades while pretending they'll deliver someday.
Air pollution, water pollution, noise pollution, climate change, dependence on
foreign oil; you can continue to wait and hope that someone else will solve the problem
for you, or you can ACT!
July 25, 2009
Ontario Announcement Regarding Incentives for EVs and PHEVs
An Open Letter to Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty
Dear Premier McGuinty:
I would like to thank you for your government's recent apparent reversal regarding
support for clean air transportation in Ontario.
The announcement on the Ides of July 2009 included statements which were as stunning
to a long-time Ontario electric vehicle advocate as they were ambitious and sweeping.
Statements like “The McGuinty government aims to have one out of every 20 vehicles driven
in Ontario to be electrically powered by 2020. “ and “Ontario will also add 500 electric
vehicles to the Ontario Public Service fleet.“
It's as if someone flipped a switch and your government finally got the message.
You know, THE message. As if someone finally put together the devastation of climate
change from burning fossil fuels in our vehicles, the burden of health effects caused
by automotive emissions, and the need to foster an economic environment that is about
sustainability instead of the extinction of the human species, and grasped that there
is an answer.
It's hard to believe that this came from the same government that had to be badgered
into allowing electric-assist bicycles in the province, and only relented in 2006 with
a pilot program. Or the same government that only grudgingly permitted Low Speed
electric Vehicles (LSVs) on our roads this year, and with such harsh restrictions that
no one will build a vehicle to meet the unique and oppressive Ontario regulations; and
that a decade after the federal government created the classification. Or the same
government that took away preferential license fees for electric cars a few years ago.
Or the same government that still prohibits electric motorcycles from using major Ontario highways.
However, I am confused by the one-year phase-in period before any of the announced
incentives come into effect. Why not let the pioneers that already drive battery
electric and plug-in electric hybrid vehicles benefit now? Why not provide a retro-active
reward payment to those with licensed vehicles as of the effective date showing a Motive
Power of E(lectric)? If the motivation really is putting clean air, electric cars that
produce less Greenhouse Gases on Ontario roads, why not reward those innovators that are
already doing so?
My fear is that this government is not so much interested in cleaner air as they are
in providing an additional bail-out to GM and Chrysler, now that you are shareholders.
The devil is in the details, and my concern is that your government will restrict the
incentives to specific makes and models, as it did with the fuel efficiency incentives of recent years.
On reflection, if your government had taken this stance just three years ago instead
of putting it off another a year into the future, perhaps we would have a domestic market
for the burgeoning surplus of electricity in the province. A surplus that has reached
such proportions that we are now shutting down perfectly functional nuclear reactors to
reduce the supply. Further, last summer, when gasoline was over $1.40 a litre, Ontarians
would have had another option for their transportation needs – electric vehicles.
Personally, I look forward to getting my Green Plates for my current, highway-capable, electric car, and I
hope this signals a pervasive change in your government's attitude toward electric
and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Now, if only there were HOV lanes in Ottawa.